New at TOL - 2 June 2003
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Mon Jun 2 11:16:27 PDT 2003
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Transitions Online - Intelligent Eastern Europe
New at TOL: Monday, 2 June 2003
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-- Top Story:
Ukraine: Ukraines Deceptive Constitutional Reform
President Kuchmas spurious reform proposals are a step back for Ukraine. The
opposition would do well to block them.
by Ivan Khokhotva
30 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=3&NrArticle=9642
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--ANNOUNCEMENT--TOL Interactive Discussion
Get the inside story on accession from one of Brussels' best: On
Thursday 12 June at 16:00 Central European time (10am Eastern Daylight
time), Karel Bartak, the long-time Czech Press Agency (CTK)
correspondent will answer readers' questions on enlargement, referenda
in Poland and the Czech Republic, and related EU topics. Mr. Bartak has
reported from Brussels since 1995 and was a finalist in the 2003 Eury
Prize for EU journalism. You can already submit questions now at:
http://www.tol.cz/q-a/index.php?IdD=11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-- Week in Review: 27 May - 2 June 2003
Russia: On the Edge of a Multipolar World
Putin says relations with China are at their highest level ever as he tries to narrow the rift
with Washington.
by Sergei Borisov
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46
Poland: In a Multipolar World
Poles broadly welcome Bush visit and their role as a chief U.S. ally in Iraq one week
ahead of its EU referendum.
by Jakub Jedras
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46
Czech Republic: Shredded Documents, Shredded Reputation?
Controversial Czech president of the UN General Assembly back in the news after
allegations of improper handling of secret documents come to light.
by Pavla Kozakova
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46
Armenia: Yes and No, Mr. President
The president retains the support of parliament but fails to win the publics support for his
controversial changes to the constitution.
by Anna Hakobyan
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46
Montenegro: Justice Given Short Shift?
Public outcry as a court drops charges against suspects in a high-profile human trafficking
affair.
by Aida Ramusovic
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46
More Week in Review stories...
Kosovo Gains Some Powers
Serbia To Punish 30-Year-Old Crimes
EU Revives Ukraine Pipeline Plan
Will GUUAM Worsen Georgia-Russia Relations?
Crackdown Continues on Independent Belarusian Media
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--ANNOUNCEMENT--FREE INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIPTIONS TO TOL
Purchase now your copy of TOL's 2002 Country Annual Survey CD-ROM and
receive a FREE INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIPTION TO Transitions Online
(www.tol.cz)
The TOL Annual Survey is the most thorough guide to the countries of
Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the former Soviet Union;
the CD-ROM contains extensive features on each of the 28 countries
covered, presenting trends and developments in these post-communist
societies for the previous year, with an element of forecast
incorporated. In addition, the CD-ROM features the most important
articles published by TOL about each country during the previous year,
as well as maps, statistics, and other country-specific online resources.
For details and to purchase, please visit this link:
http://store.tol.cz/look/store/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=11&NrIssue=1&NrSection=4&NrArticle=8252
Offer valid for a limited time!
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-- Opinions:
St. Petersburg Summit: Beyond Mending Fences
As the fog of Iraq slowly lifts, what Bushs neoconservatism and Putins romantic
pragmatism have in common should become the basis of the two countries own postwar
settlement.
by Peter Lavelle
30 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=3&NrArticle=9643
Ukraine: Ukraines Deceptive Constitutional Reform
President Kuchmas spurious reform proposals are a step back for Ukraine. The
opposition would do well to block them.
by Ivan Khokhotva
30 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=3&NrArticle=9642
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-- Columns:
Notes from St. Petersburg: An Accordion for Goats?
Local business may not need Konstaninovsky Palace much, but they have still footed the
$280 million bill for the Russian presidents seaside residence.
by Vladimir Kovalev
29 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=17&NrArticle=9631
Notes from Tartu: Fast-Falling Angels
Whether a scandal, a tempest in a teacup, or a sign of Estonians primitive demands on
politicians, a minor traffic offense is teaching Estonias young government the dangers of
camping on the moral high-ground.
by Raimo Poom
29 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=17&NrArticle=9630
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Serbias Roma Refugees
Living Out of Sight
Roma refugees eke out a makeshift living on the fringes of Serbian society.
by Vesna Misic
28 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/CER/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=14&NrIssue=48&NrSection=5&NrArticle=9615
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Lithuanias Jan Palach
The Secret of Kaunas
A young man's anguished protest brings a city to tears and students onto the streets
chanting anti-Soviet slogans. Budapest '56? Prague '69? Guess again.
by Rokas M. Tracevskis
23 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/CER/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=14&NrIssue=48&NrSection=5&NrArticle=9580
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-- Special Package: Editors' Choice
Russia: Unaccounted-for Happiness
Russians spend much more than they officially earn--and both legal and unaccounted-for
income is spent immediately. From Ezhenedelny Zhurnal.
by Mikhail Berger
30 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/wire/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=10&NrIssue=715&NrSection=1&NrArticle=9644
Croatia: A Road of No Return
Across Croatia, the number of illegal hazardous waste disposal areas is increasing. From
Feral Tribune.
by Boris Raseta
28 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/wire/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=10&NrIssue=713&NrSection=1&NrArticle=9620
Russia: Fire After Fire
Day by day, year after year, Russia is destroying its forests. From Ezhenedelny Zhurnal.
by Boris Zhukov
27 May 2003
http://www.tol.cz/look/wire/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=10&NrIssue=712&NrSection=1&NrArticle=9602
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-- Our Take:
The Great Game in the Far East
The more important summit in St. Petersburg was arguably not between Putin and Bush,
but between Putin and Chinas new president.
With the worlds only superpower in town, perhaps it was inevitable that the headlines
from the mass gathering of heads of state for St. Petersburgs party were dominated by
U.S.-Russia relations. But arguably the Bush-Putin meeting was less important than it
might have seemed after the Iraq fallout.
The war over the war in Iraq has now been reduced mainly to sniping about
reconstruction. North Korea is of course a potential sore point, but Pyongyang has said it
considers its nuclear program to be a matter for it and the United States alone, dashing
Russias attempts at diplomacy. And as for Iran, some clashes may be expected, but it is
plausible to argue, as Nikolai Zlobin of the Washington-based Center for Defense
Information does, that now the task for Russia is to save face.
The discussions between George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin may have been less
important, in fact, than Putins summit with Chinas new president, Hu Jintao. Both
declared themselves supporters of a multipolar world--in the wake of the Iraq war, the
euphemism of choice for a world not dominated by the United States. And both sides
proved it with actions: Hu chose Moscow, rather than Washington, as his first foreign
port of call after assuming the leadership of China, while Putin gave the go-ahead for a
huge new oil pipeline to China rather than choosing an alternative pipeline to Japan. We
were therefore treated to the spectacle of two great games in play at the same time: one
for a multipolar world, the other for Far Eastern oil.
Thanks to the volatility of the Muslim world, oil is now a stronger geopolitical playing
card for Russia than ever. Japan, which imports all its oil, has embarked on an active
search for new sources outside the Middle East and in 2002 imported some Russian oil
for the first time since 1978. Diversification is also a new mantra for China, which became
a net importer of oil in 1993 and has since become the worlds third-largest importer.
Japanese companies now partner some of the Western giants in Siberia, while China has
been making a big bid for a stake in the development of Central Asian oil, with the
possibility of a pipeline from Kazakhstan.
The attractions of Russia as an alternative source have only been enhanced by the
discovery in recent years of an oil field near Angarsk, west of Siberias Lake Baikal, that
reportedly has reserves equal to those of Kuwait. For Russia, the choice of a pipeline
from Angarsk either to Daiqing, China, or to Nakhodka, a port on the coast of the Sea of
Japan, is the choice between serving one huge market (China), or supplying up to a
quarter of Japans oil needs and a variety of rich markets along Asias Pacific coast. And,
despite the phenomenal size of the Angarsk oil field, it really is being presented as a
choice: Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov argues that there will be insufficient oil
in the foreseeable future to justify both pipelines.
>From the outside, the choice between Japan and China would seem to have been no
competition. Japans relations with Russia still founder in a historical time warp because
of the dispute about the status of the Kuril Islands that Russia seized during World War
II. In contrast, Sino-Russian relations are racing ahead and picking up speed. In 2001,
Jiang Zemin, Hus predecessor, signed a friendship treaty with Russia, symbolically
opening a new page in a relationship that, during the Soviet era, was by turns friendly,
hostile, and cool.
Trade between the two countries has doubled in less than a decade, and China in 2002
accounted for more than half of Russias arms exports, according to the Moscow-based
Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. Now, China has for the first time
assumed leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a six-member group that
currently focuses on issues such as terrorism, separatism, and extremism in Central Asia.
An easy political choice, then, for Russia, but also a canny one in the broader context of
relations with the United States. In 1997, U.S. President Bill Clinton began calling China
a strategic partner, going on to become the first U.S. president to visit China since the
Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. Since 2000, Bush has changed the wording to
strategic competitor. In choosing the Chinese route, Putin has taken an important step
toward a multipolar world by forming what is a long-term strategic partnership with
China and effectively promising to fuel the next stage of Chinas economic development.
The hand of supporters of a multipolar world has therefore been strengthened, while the
stakes have risen for the United States and its allies in the other great game, in the
Caspian and Central Asia. With much of the oil from eastern Siberia going to China, they
should be even more concerned to ensure that oil from Kazakhstan flows westward, not
eastward--and that Russia will have less say in control of Caspian oil.
Conceivably, the West might ultimately get the better of Russia in the Caspian and
Central Asia, but it would also be a tricky victory, forcing it into a commitment to regions
that, like the Middle East, are deeply volatile and in which Russia is bound to retain major
influence.
Meanwhile, back in the East, Russia is still keeping its bargaining chips with Japan and the
Western-style economies of the Pacific. It continues to hold out the possibility of a
pipeline to the Sea of Japan.
Having lost out once, Japan should logically be even more keen to up its already very
generous offer to foot the entire bill for the construction of the pipeline to Nakhodka. At
the same time, Russia can--when needed--always pull out one old card, the status of the
Kuril Islands, or play on Japanese fears that Russia might instead build a pipeline to South
Korea.
So, the honors for this round of the Far Eastern Great Game go to Russia. But most of all
they go to China for securing a much sought-after supply line. As Russia provides the oil
that drives China forward, Putin will be able to contemplate the neglected truth about his
vision of a multipolar world. It is China, not Russia, that has the power to become an
alternative pole to the United States. Once junior to Russia/the Soviet Union, China is
now the stronger and more dynamic of the two. The fundamental difference comes down
to their economies: Chinas is now five times larger than Russias.
If Russia does want a multipolar world, it will need to double its GDP in 10 years, as
Putin wants to do. That requires average growth of about 7 percent a year. Difficult, but
China, for one, has shown that it is possible.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-- Job Announcement:
Czech and Slovak Correspondents
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=14&NrArticle=9476
Belarus Correspondents
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=14&NrArticle=9523
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-- Advertisement:
The Central Asian and Southern Caucasian Freedom of Expression Network
has recently launched an English-language website at http://www.cascfen.org devoted to
news on the media and about local journalists. Network members from throughout the
region provide daily updates, supplementing other sources of freedom of expression
news. Your feedback is welcome by visiting http://www.cascfen.org.
....................................................
The TOL newsletter is published by Transitions Online--The leading news
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-- Transitions Online - Intelligent Eastern Europe
Copyright: Transitions Online 2003
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